Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Sorry to say, but...

...only FII buying can restore faith
The resilience, after Black Monday’s crash, shown by the stock market has been undoubtedly brilliant. Can one assume that the dust of the last few weeks’ carnage has settled and the positive performance on the bourses in the last two trading session marks the beginning of a new bull run? “Skepticism is still there,” says Satish Kannav (Senior Analyst, Arihant Capital Markets Ltd); certainly it will take time before confidence returns to the market. He cautions further that “one can not consider this as the beginning of a new bull run.”

An obvious question doing the rounds is the sudden upsurge in the stocks wherein the mid-caps and small-caps have outperformed the Sensex. Speaking exclusively to B&E, Vidit Gupta (Senior Manager Institutional Deals, Arihant Capital Markets Ltd) explained, “Liquidity in the market has increased on the backdrop of refund from the Reliance Power IPO and Future Capital Holding’s IPO. This cannot be termed as trend reversal as with respect to volume, there have not been significant gains in the market.” Agrees Abhinandan Sarkar (Manager, R. R. Equity Brokers) “Until the Fed rate becomes stable, the volatility in the market will continue.” The fact that FIIs were net buyers in equities for just one session since the big crash itself leaves enough room for speculation.

Well analysts also put forth the view that till the listing of the Reliance IPO is over, institutions will not allow the market to slide and that the present positive mood at the bourses is merely index management and at best it can be attributed as a relief. The relief provided by the last few trading sessions does provide some degree of optimism; nevertheless the skepticism leaves ample scope for ambiguity and apprehension. In such a scenario, it will be too early to conclude that the dust has settled.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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