Showing posts with label World Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Bank. Show all posts

Friday, April 12, 2013

Global Development Horizons 2011

Amidst the transformative change that the global economy is witnessing, it is anticipated that within the next two decades the rise of emerging economies will inevitably have major implications for global economy and geopolitics. The world bank argues that a new world order with a more diffused distribution of economic power is emerging. B&E analyses the shift towards multipolarity.

The new Growth Poles

Over the course of two millennia, there have been several instances of shift in global economic powers. The period of China’s Tang dynasty to the Ming dynatsy (600-1600), saw to it that China was the dominant force in the global economy accounting for a quarter of the global growth. The Renaissance phase coupled with the advent of the industrial revolution saw the coming of age of the European economies (e.g. Italy, Spain, France , Great Britain). Post World War II, innovation and consumer demand propelled the United States to the position of world’s foremost economic power with Germany, Japan and the former Soviet Union playing pivotal roles. Post the financial crisis of 2008-09, the global economy is tilting towards new growth poles.

Dynamics of Growth Poles

In the wake of the financial crisis, the global macro-economy is apparently poised to follow a two-track course. Considering the baseline scenario, the World Bank estimates that the emerging economies’ share of global output will expand in real terms from 36.2% (in 2010) to 44.5% by 2025. A closer scrutiny reveals that China will lead this impressive rise in share of global output. What is interesting to note is the fact that despite the demography driven changes (the old age dependency ratio in China is expected to double between 2010 and 2025), China will be able to maintain its comparative advantage in manufacturing. Consistent with historical productivity trends, India’s annual growth in 2025 will be 5.4%.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
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Wednesday, November 07, 2012

World threat

Threat from emerging giants...

World history has witnessed a trend of few leading nations dictating world policy and future and many followers supporting those policies, sacrificing their national, regional and racial interest. But last century has given birth of many emerging giants like Korea, China & India who have become a certain threat to that trend, raising many uncertainties for global stability. China is now single largest investment destination, India & Korea are more in the forefront of the world, in terms of trade, which was unimaginable few decades ago. Total FDI from Europe to China is $35 billion, till date. And the West has continued dictating global trade policies through creating many institutions like the World Bank, IMF, GATT & IEA. But with emergence of new giants, these institutions have become ineffective, inefficient & outdated. As history suggests that in times of crisis, it is the West which has stabilised hostility and brought peace and institutionalised nations, for peace and constancy with advanced and suitable policies. Should not they again come forward, actively thinking that individual emerging giants can’t control instability?


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012. An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
 
Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM B-School Facebook Page
IIPM Global Exposure
IIPM Best B School India
IIPM B-School Detail
IIPM Links  
IIPM : The B-School with a Human Face
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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

The Finance Ministry took Micro and Macro Economics Revision Lessons from us

A Blanket Interest rate Hike will have The Worst Economic Impact in order to Curb Supply-side Inflation. It’s time The Finance Ministry took Micro and Macro Economics Revision Lessons from us
 
The second problem is RBI’s fetish for contractionary policies. As is well accepted globally, contractionary policies can work only when the inflation is a demand pull inflation (as raising interest rates and reducing money supply results in consumers having less disposable income, and taking lesser loans to purchase, say, houses). Unfortunately, food items in India are not of the luxuriant variety, which can undergo price jumps so suddenly and so uncontrollably simply because people have as suddenly and as uncontrollably started eating more – unless of course, as even World Bank head Robert Zoellick accepted this week, the inflation in India was much more due to supply side constraints. In such a case, tightening of monetary policy would end up destroying supply even further as businesses would stop investing.

So what should RBI do? Immediately initiate the practice of differential interest rates while providing money to borrowing banks, which would broadly mean three different interest rate slabs when the borrowing bank takes money – one, when the bank borrows money from RBI for providing loans to the agriculture sector, one for corporate sector and one for retail/end consumers. RBI should provide money to banks at lower rates (expansionary monetary policy) in case the banks are taking finances for subsequently providing loans to the agriculture or industrial sector. This will motivate supply growth. RBI should provide money to banks at higher or unchanged rates in case the banks are taking finances for providing loans to end consumers. This will proactively motivate savings and demotivate an increase in retail demand. At the same time, banks should be prohibited from charging increased interest rates from end consumers who have taken past loans. Protectionist surely; but when it is a question of the economy collapsing due to inflation rate jumps, a protectionist policy is any day more welcome than a contractionary one. Dada, try us out – one call and we’ll be at your service! And no, we’ll charge no interest for that.



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